I've been placing senior leaders in Japan since 2003, and one of the most common places a search stalls isn't a shortage of candidates. It's the decision at the end.
The interviews are done, everyone has met the finalist, and the feedback comes back as "good energy, but I'm not sure" or "strong, but something didn't click". Nobody can say what the doubt actually is, so nobody can test it. The hiring manager waits, asks for one more meeting, and sometimes the candidate takes another offer in the meantime.
Interviews help, but they have limits
The research backs up something most experienced recruiters already know. A large 2022 review of selection methods by Paul Sackett and colleagues found that structured interviews, where every candidate gets the same job-related questions and is scored the same way, were the best single predictor of job performance. The same review found that the predictive power of most hiring methods had been overstated for years. Every method adds something, but none of them is enough on its own.
That's where a good assessment earns its place. It gives the hiring manager a second source of evidence, and it can turn a vague doubt into something specific they can ask about.
The Hogan that turned out to be right
When I was running Experis Executive, we used Hogan assessments on some senior searches. The part most people know is the Hogan Development Survey, which looks at 11 "derailers". These are the habits that come out when someone is under pressure. Hogan launched it in 1995 and it's still the best known tool of its kind.
On one search, a candidate's report came back with some clear red flags. I didn't want to rely on a report alone, so I did my own background checks. What I heard from people who had worked with this person lined up closely with the report. Then I sat down with the candidate and went through the flags one by one. We both agreed they were pretty clear and accurate. That conversation told me more than any of the interviews had.
I'll admit I never wanted to take a Hogan myself. I'm fairly sure mine would have been all red flags. Looking back, the company had probably outgrown me by then. I know I'm a builder, not a maintainer.
What about Myers-Briggs?
I wrote recently about what I'm like to work with, and mentioned that I tested as ENTJ years ago, possibly ENFJ. From my own experience both descriptions fit me pretty well. But that was one test, taken once, and Myers-Briggs has well-known limits. Several studies have found that around half of people get a different type when they retake it only five weeks later. Most academic psychologists prefer the Big Five model, which measures traits on a scale instead of putting people into one of 16 boxes.
It's a useful way to start a conversation about how you work, but I wouldn't use it to decide a hire.
Why most clients don't use them
The tools that do this well cost money and need an expert. Hogan reports are usually quoted at a few hundred US dollars each, and you can't just read them yourself. You need a certified practitioner, and Hogan's own certification workshop costs about US$3,000. For a single Country Manager search that's manageable. Across a long shortlist, or for a startup making its first hire in Japan, it often doesn't happen.
Testing itself is nothing new in Japan. Recruit's SPI3, which combines an ability test with a personality test, was taken by about 2.31 million people at around 15,900 companies in the year to March 2024. But it's best known for graduate hiring, and it isn't built to help with a Country Manager or VP decision.
A simpler version
This is where I think AI changes things. There's a large bank of personality questions called the International Personality Item Pool, put together by researchers at the Oregon Research Institute. The questions are in the public domain, so anyone can copy, translate or use them without asking permission or paying a fee, and they've already been translated into more than 25 languages.
That means you could build a short Big Five profile without copying anyone's product, and use AI to turn the results into a plain report a hiring manager can read in five minutes. Two things would make it more useful. The Sackett review found that personality questions predict better when they ask how you behave at work rather than in general. And the report should focus on how the person is likely to work with the hiring manager and the team, not hand out a pass or fail score.
It would have limits. It wouldn't be a Hogan, and it would need testing against real outcomes before anyone relied on it. In Japan it would also have to follow the labour ministry's guidance on fair hiring, which says any selection method, including aptitude tests, should assess ability and fit for the job against criteria set in advance. Questions about family background, beliefs or religion have no place in it.
We're looking at building something like this ourselves. If we do, we'll test it on our own team first.
Nobody is perfect
Every leader I've placed has had flaws, and I've got plenty of my own. The point of an assessment isn't to find someone without any. It's to give the hiring manager enough confidence to move forward with someone imperfect, knowing what to watch for and how to work with them.
If you're stuck on a decision like that, I'm happy to talk it through.
Sources
Sackett, Zhang, Berry and Lievens (2022), Revisiting meta-analytic estimates of validity in personnel selection, Journal of Applied Psychology
Hogan Assessments, Hogan Development Survey
Pittenger (2005), Cautionary comments regarding the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, Consulting Psychology Journal
International Personality Item Pool, Oregon Research Institute
Goldberg et al. (2006), The International Personality Item Pool and the future of public-domain personality measures, Journal of Research in Personality
Recruit Agent, interview with Recruit Management Solutions on SPI3 (Japanese)
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 公正な採用選考 (kōsei na saiyō senkō, fair hiring) (Japanese)
Hogan pricing figures are published estimates from distributors, for example Compono, not an official Hogan price list
Research for this post was gathered with AI under my direction from the sources above. The views and the Hogan story are my own.
